After the long holiday weekend, we’re back to a full week of trading. Here are a few things we’re watching for this week.
First, trade-war headlines.
The Trump Administration’s original deadline was July 9th, and while that date is still in focus for investors, it now appears that many countries will have until August 1st. Maybe it’s the ebb and flow of the entire ordeal. Or perhaps it’s the reality that trade tensions could worsen in the weeks ahead.
Either way, US stocks are trading lower this morning, at least partly in response to these headlines.
Second, earnings.
While earnings season doesn’t officially begin until July 15th, when the big banks kick things off, we’ll get a couple of reports this week. One of those reports will be Delta Air Lines (NYSE:) on Thursday.
Third, record highs.
Stocks surged to record highs on Friday, with the IWM and QQQ ETFs leading the way with 1% gains. Usually, one week a month has an absence of major economic reports, and in July, this is that week.
Can stocks continue to drift higher into earnings season, or will trade worries have investors hitting pause?
The Setup — Philip Morris
Philip Morris International Inc (NYSE:) may not get a lot of discussion, but its stock has done well. Shares of PM are up 48.5% so far this year and have climbed more than 70% over the past 12 months.
Despite the huge rally, shares still pay a respectable dividend yield of 3%. Analysts expect roughly 10% earnings growth this year, as well as in fiscal 2026, 2027, and 2028. On the revenue front, consensus estimates call for high-single-digit growth between 6.5% and 9% from 2025 through 2028.
Shares recently pulled back about 5% from the highs, testing down into the 50-day moving average, which has been an active area of support.
Chart as of the close on 7/3/2025. Source: eToro ProCharts, courtesy of TradingView.
Along with the 50-day moving average, shares are also finding support near $175, which was resistance in early May but support later in the month.
If PM can hold this level, bulls will look for a further bounce to the upside, potentially back up toward the recent highs near $187. On the flip side, a break of $175 could usher in more downside, as the momentum becomes more bearish in the short term.
Options
For options traders, calls or bull call spreads could be one way to speculate on support holding on a pullback. In this scenario, options buyers limit their risk to the price paid for the calls or call spreads, while trying to capitalize on a bounce in the stock.
Conversely, investors who expect support to fail could speculate with puts or put spreads.
What Wall Street Is Watching
TSLA
Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:) are under considerable pressure this morning, falling about 6% in pre-market trading after CEO Elon Musk says he is starting a new political party in the US. The news adds tension to an already contentious political rift between Musk and the Trump Administration.
BTC
continues to consolidate between $100K and $110K, as bulls were hoping for a key breakout over the weekend. While BTC continues to flirt with a move to new highs, it has not taken out the May 22nd high yet. Will it happen this week?