HomeTrading Ideas3 Things to Watch...

3 Things to Watch This Week: Trade-War Worries, Earnings, and Record Highs

After the long holiday weekend, we’re back to a full week of trading. Here are a few things we’re watching for this week. 

First, trade-war headlines. 

The Trump Administration’s original deadline was July 9th, and while that date is still in focus for investors, it now appears that many countries will have until August 1st. Maybe it’s the ebb and flow of the entire ordeal. Or perhaps it’s the reality that trade tensions could worsen in the weeks ahead. 

Either way, US stocks are trading lower this morning, at least partly in response to these headlines.

Second, earnings.

While earnings season doesn’t officially begin until July 15th, when the big banks kick things off, we’ll get a couple of reports this week. One of those reports will be Delta Air Lines (NYSE:) on Thursday. 

Third, record highs. 

Stocks surged to record highs on Friday, with the IWM and QQQ ETFs leading the way with 1% gains. Usually, one week a month has an absence of major economic reports, and in July, this is that week. 

Can stocks continue to drift higher into earnings season, or will trade worries have investors hitting pause?

The Setup — Philip Morris

Philip Morris International Inc (NYSE:) may not get a lot of discussion, but its stock has done well. Shares of PM are up 48.5% so far this year and have climbed more than 70% over the past 12 months. 

Despite the huge rally, shares still pay a respectable dividend yield of 3%. Analysts expect roughly 10% earnings growth this year, as well as in fiscal 2026, 2027, and 2028. On the revenue front, consensus estimates call for high-single-digit growth between 6.5% and 9% from 2025 through 2028. 

Shares recently pulled back about 5% from the highs, testing down into the 50-day moving average, which has been an active area of support.
 

Chart as of the close on 7/3/2025. Source: eToro ProCharts, courtesy of TradingView.

Along with the 50-day moving average, shares are also finding support near $175, which was resistance in early May but support later in the month. 

If PM can hold this level, bulls will look for a further bounce to the upside, potentially back up toward the recent highs near $187. On the flip side, a break of $175 could usher in more downside, as the momentum becomes more bearish in the short term. 

Options

For options traders, calls or bull call spreads could be one way to speculate on support holding on a pullback. In this scenario, options buyers limit their risk to the price paid for the calls or call spreads, while trying to capitalize on a bounce in the stock. 

Conversely, investors who expect support to fail could speculate with puts or put spreads.

What Wall Street Is Watching

TSLA

Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:) are under considerable pressure this morning, falling about 6% in pre-market trading after CEO Elon Musk says he is starting a new political party in the US. The news adds tension to an already contentious political rift between Musk and the Trump Administration. 

BTC

continues to consolidate between $100K and $110K, as bulls were hoping for a key breakout over the weekend. While BTC continues to flirt with a move to new highs, it has not taken out the May 22nd high yet. Will it happen this week? 

Most Popular

More from Author

The Powell-Trump Clash is Set to Escalate

Growth challenges are mounting while tariffs will lift inflation, but stagflation...

Why Is AbbVie Stock Trading Higher On Thursday? – AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV)

IGI Therapeutics SA, a wholly owned subsidiary of New York-based Ichnos...

Dynamic Hedging and FX Risk Analysis Within Tactical Asset Allocation Rules

Often, investors fully hedge their portfolios for currency risk. This can...

German CPI Confirmed at 2.0%, Euro Drifting, FOMC Split Over Cuts

The euro continues to have a quiet week and is drifting...

Read Now

The Powell-Trump Clash is Set to Escalate

Growth challenges are mounting while tariffs will lift inflation, but stagflation fears are wide of the mark. The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until the end of the year, despite escalating pressure from the president, but may move in larger steps when it does cutConsumer Caution...

Why Is AbbVie Stock Trading Higher On Thursday? – AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV)

IGI Therapeutics SA, a wholly owned subsidiary of New York-based Ichnos Glenmark Innovation Inc., and AbbVie Inc. ABBV, on Thursday, announced an exclusive licensing agreement for IGI’s lead investigational asset, ISB 2001, developed using IGI’s proprietary BEAT protein platform, for oncology and autoimmune diseases.“Multispecifics including trispecific antibodies represent...

Dynamic Hedging and FX Risk Analysis Within Tactical Asset Allocation Rules

Often, investors fully hedge their portfolios for currency risk. This can lead to significant drag in performance for currencies with negative carry. However, not hedging the foreign currency exposure can lead to significant drawdowns, especially for conservative investments. In this paper, we consider a conservative, global tactical...

German CPI Confirmed at 2.0%, Euro Drifting, FOMC Split Over Cuts

The euro continues to have a quiet week and is drifting for a third consecutive day. In the European session, is trading at 1.1730, up 0.09% on the day.German Inflation Dips to 2% as food, Energy Prices FallGerman inflation rose 2.0% y/y in June, in line...

Klotho Stock Delivers 1,222% Biotech Blowout: Opportunity or Bubble? – Klotho Neurosciences (NASDAQ:KLTO)

Shares of Klotho Neurosciences, Inc. KLTO have soared more than 1000% over the past three months on promising results and breakthrough hopes. Klotho stock was in the spotlight again Thursday after announcing an FDA nod on its ALS treatment candidate. What's Driving The Rally: Klotho announced it has received...

Eurozone Economic Weakness Laid Bare as US Front-Loading Effects Wane

Eurozone data remains volatile amid trade war developments, but the underlying trend is still sluggish. Uncertainty is slowing domestic demand, which contributes to our expectation of a further rate cut from the European Central Bank in SeptemberEurozone Economy Shows Further Weakness in the Second QuarterThe eurozone economy...

SeaStar Medical’s QUELIMMUNE Wins Prestigious Award From The National Kidney Foundation, Former Winners Include Names Like Janssen, Merck and Otsuka – Johnson & Johnson...

When it comes to unmet needs in the nephrology space, acute kidney injury remains a significant concern. That's particularly true regarding pediatric AKI – each year, about 4,000 children with AKI require continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT), with a mortality rate of approximately 51-58%. Many of those...

Why Are Biotech Stocks Ultragenyx And Mereo Facing A Sell-Off? – Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:RARE), Mereo BioPharma Group (NASDAQ:MREO)

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. RARE and Mereo BioPharma Group plc MREO stocks are plunging on Thursday.What Happened?The companies on Wednesday announced that the randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 3 portion of the Orbit study evaluating UX143 (setrusumab) in pediatric and young adult patients with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is progressing toward...

The Energy Report: Peak Oil Demand

Just breaking… is discussing pausing their output production hikes from October, saying that we would not ever consume as much oil as we did in the past. As predicted the “Peak Demand” oil theory has been dis-proven again. The United Arab Emirates oil minister Suhail Al Mazroui said that...

Why Is Pelthos Therapeutics Stock Trading Higher Thursday – Pelthos Therapeutics (AMEX:PTHS)

Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. PTHS on Thursday announced the launch of Zelsuvmi (berdazimer) topical gel 10.3% for molluscum contagiosum (molluscum) in adults and pediatric patients one year of age and older.Zelsuvmi received a Novel Drug designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in January 2024 and is...

FTSE 100, DAX Forecast: 2 Top Trades to Watch

rises to record highs, boosted by miners. hits record highs as investors await EU-US trade deal news.FTSE Rises to Record Highs, Boosted by MinersThe FTSE 100 has risen to a record high, boosted by the mining sector, as investors react to Trump’s latest tariff announcement. Anglo...

Short-Term Stability vs. Long-Term Tension: Gas Market Holds Steady

This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova- analyst (LSE). market signals remain mixed. Summer 2025 contracts held just above their median pre-expiry levels last week, staying within historical volatility ranges. In contrast, winter 2026-27 contracts remained firmly above the upper bounds of the 10-day pre-expiry...