HomeTrading IdeasA Big Piece of...

A Big Piece of the BBB Puzzle: Lower Interest Rates

With published today, most Fed members eye this year, but are split on what are the next steps. 

One must cynically wonder which of the members is eyeing Powell’s job. 

President Trump has made no secret of how much he wants rate cuts, to the point of insulting Jerome Powell’s intelligence. 

And so, will Trump get what he wants? 

If Powell quits (rumored) will there be a Supercycle in commodities? 

A topic I have covered extensively. 

We still have the debate on stagflation or disinflation. 

Meanwhile, my trifecta of inflation is working well. 

  • – to ratio-narrowed but needs to narrow more 
  • – in a downtrend with only narrow rallies 
  • – Now potentially bottoming. 

The chart of the long bonds , suggests that Trump will have his way and at some point, rates will drop. 

In the meantime, just that perception is giving long bonds a bid.  

And do not forget, sometimes it is buy the rumor and sell the news.  

A lesson in phases and momentum: 

In early June, I wrote a Daily about the long bonds and the bullish phase change. 

I was prepared for the phase change as momentum (circled), cleared the 50-DMA (blue) before the price did (also circled). 

Then, in mid-June, the price followed and closed twice over the 50-DMA to confirm a phase change to recovery. 


TLTs climbed to the January 6-month calendar range high (green horizontal line) and that was it for the rally. 

Then when TLTs sold off (note the second circle), notice what happened to the momentum! 

The momentum never broke the 50-DMA while the price did. 

This is the power of our real motion indicator. 

Furthermore, now that TLT has cleared the 50-DMA once again, one has to think that the momentum is calling for a rally. 

The long bonds are acting as though lower rates are coming. 

Whether that is true or not, the charts always precede the narrative. 

ETF Summary 

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below) 

  • S&P 500 (SPY) 618 support  
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) 218 pivotal 
  • Dow (DIA) 442 support 
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) 550 support 
  • Regional banks (KRE) 60 pivotal support  
  • Semiconductors (SMH) 280 support  
  • Transportation (IYT) 70 pivotal 
  • Biotechnology (IBB) 130 now must hold 
  • Retail (XRT) 80 must hold for best bullish case 
  • Bitcoin (BTCUSD) If holds 110 see 125k next

Most Popular

More from Author

Why Is AbbVie Stock Trading Higher On Thursday? – AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV)

IGI Therapeutics SA, a wholly owned subsidiary of New York-based Ichnos...

Dynamic Hedging and FX Risk Analysis Within Tactical Asset Allocation Rules

Often, investors fully hedge their portfolios for currency risk. This can...

German CPI Confirmed at 2.0%, Euro Drifting, FOMC Split Over Cuts

The euro continues to have a quiet week and is drifting...

Klotho Stock Delivers 1,222% Biotech Blowout: Opportunity or Bubble? – Klotho Neurosciences (NASDAQ:KLTO)

Shares of Klotho Neurosciences, Inc. KLTO have soared more than 1000%...

Read Now

Why Is AbbVie Stock Trading Higher On Thursday? – AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV)

IGI Therapeutics SA, a wholly owned subsidiary of New York-based Ichnos Glenmark Innovation Inc., and AbbVie Inc. ABBV, on Thursday, announced an exclusive licensing agreement for IGI’s lead investigational asset, ISB 2001, developed using IGI’s proprietary BEAT protein platform, for oncology and autoimmune diseases.“Multispecifics including trispecific antibodies represent...

Dynamic Hedging and FX Risk Analysis Within Tactical Asset Allocation Rules

Often, investors fully hedge their portfolios for currency risk. This can lead to significant drag in performance for currencies with negative carry. However, not hedging the foreign currency exposure can lead to significant drawdowns, especially for conservative investments. In this paper, we consider a conservative, global tactical...

German CPI Confirmed at 2.0%, Euro Drifting, FOMC Split Over Cuts

The euro continues to have a quiet week and is drifting for a third consecutive day. In the European session, is trading at 1.1730, up 0.09% on the day.German Inflation Dips to 2% as food, Energy Prices FallGerman inflation rose 2.0% y/y in June, in line...

Klotho Stock Delivers 1,222% Biotech Blowout: Opportunity or Bubble? – Klotho Neurosciences (NASDAQ:KLTO)

Shares of Klotho Neurosciences, Inc. KLTO have soared more than 1000% over the past three months on promising results and breakthrough hopes. Klotho stock was in the spotlight again Thursday after announcing an FDA nod on its ALS treatment candidate. What's Driving The Rally: Klotho announced it has received...

Eurozone Economic Weakness Laid Bare as US Front-Loading Effects Wane

Eurozone data remains volatile amid trade war developments, but the underlying trend is still sluggish. Uncertainty is slowing domestic demand, which contributes to our expectation of a further rate cut from the European Central Bank in SeptemberEurozone Economy Shows Further Weakness in the Second QuarterThe eurozone economy...

SeaStar Medical’s QUELIMMUNE Wins Prestigious Award From The National Kidney Foundation, Former Winners Include Names Like Janssen, Merck and Otsuka – Johnson & Johnson...

When it comes to unmet needs in the nephrology space, acute kidney injury remains a significant concern. That's particularly true regarding pediatric AKI – each year, about 4,000 children with AKI require continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT), with a mortality rate of approximately 51-58%. Many of those...

Why Are Biotech Stocks Ultragenyx And Mereo Facing A Sell-Off? – Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:RARE), Mereo BioPharma Group (NASDAQ:MREO)

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. RARE and Mereo BioPharma Group plc MREO stocks are plunging on Thursday.What Happened?The companies on Wednesday announced that the randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 3 portion of the Orbit study evaluating UX143 (setrusumab) in pediatric and young adult patients with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is progressing toward...

3 Things to Watch This Week: Trade-War Worries, Earnings, and Record Highs

After the long holiday weekend, we’re back to a full week of trading. Here are a few things we’re watching for this week. First, trade-war headlines. The Trump Administration’s original deadline was July 9th, and while that date is still in focus for investors, it now appears that many...

The Energy Report: Peak Oil Demand

Just breaking… is discussing pausing their output production hikes from October, saying that we would not ever consume as much oil as we did in the past. As predicted the “Peak Demand” oil theory has been dis-proven again. The United Arab Emirates oil minister Suhail Al Mazroui said that...

Why Is Pelthos Therapeutics Stock Trading Higher Thursday – Pelthos Therapeutics (AMEX:PTHS)

Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. PTHS on Thursday announced the launch of Zelsuvmi (berdazimer) topical gel 10.3% for molluscum contagiosum (molluscum) in adults and pediatric patients one year of age and older.Zelsuvmi received a Novel Drug designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in January 2024 and is...

FTSE 100, DAX Forecast: 2 Top Trades to Watch

rises to record highs, boosted by miners. hits record highs as investors await EU-US trade deal news.FTSE Rises to Record Highs, Boosted by MinersThe FTSE 100 has risen to a record high, boosted by the mining sector, as investors react to Trump’s latest tariff announcement. Anglo...

Short-Term Stability vs. Long-Term Tension: Gas Market Holds Steady

This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova- analyst (LSE). market signals remain mixed. Summer 2025 contracts held just above their median pre-expiry levels last week, staying within historical volatility ranges. In contrast, winter 2026-27 contracts remained firmly above the upper bounds of the 10-day pre-expiry...