Guggenheim Partners on Monday initiated coverage on Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AMLX, noting the company is poised to open post-bariatric hypoglycemia’s (PBH) blockbuster potential.
PBH is a common complication where blood sugar levels drop too low after meals in individuals who have undergone bariatric (tummy tuck) surgery.
Analyst Seamus Fernandez initiated a Buy rating and a price forecast of $17, saying, “In our view, AMLX offers a compelling investment opportunity in first-in-class rare diseases medicines.”
The analyst views Amylyx as the first-to-market company in the $2 billion+ opportunity for the not-so-rare endocrine disease, post-bariatric hypoglycemia (PBH).
The company’s lead drug, avexitide, a potential first-in-disease, first-in-class once-daily peptide advancing toward results in the pivotal Phase 3 LUCIDITY study for PBH, which the company expects to read out in the first half of 2026.
Analyst Fernandez says, “We believe LUCIDITY has a strong chance of replicating avexitide’s clinically meaningful and statistically significant Phase 2/2b results, likely driving material (100%+) upside potential in shares from current levels.
Guggenheim estimates 50,000 to 100,000 people in the U.S. with moderate to severe, uncontrolled symptoms of PBH (post-bariatric hypoglycemia).
Based on this, the analyst projects that the global market for GLP-1 antagonists to treat PBH could grow to over $2 billion by 2035 — with $1.8 billion in the U.S. and $410 million outside the U.S. This assumes a 60% peak market share among patients with severe PBH.
Other Pipeline:
Guggenheim experts think a once-weekly GLP-1 antagonist would be highly attractive to patients.
The company’s main competitor in the PBH space is MBX Biosciences, Inc. MBX.
MBX Biosciences is developing a once-weekly GLP-1 antagonist called MBX 1416 for PBH and shared Phase 1 results in January 2025.
The analyst conservatively estimates that a once-weekly competitor could launch by 2031 and sees Amylyx’s life cycle management strategy as a positive factor that could add further value.
Price Action: AMLX stock is up 24.5% at $6.25 at the last check on Tuesday.
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