and prices fluctuate depending on various economic, political, and environmental factors around the world. Here are the main factors that affect these prices:
Factors Affecting Gold Prices
- Value of the Dollar: Gold is usually traded against the US dollar, so changes in the value of the dollar directly affect gold prices. When the value of the dollar falls, gold prices tend to rise because gold becomes cheaper.
- Interest Rates: Central bank interest rates have a major impact on gold prices. High interest rates generally suppress gold prices because investors turn to high-interest instruments (such as bonds). Low interest rates, on the other hand, increase demand for gold.
- Inflation: Gold is considered a hedge against inflation. When inflation is high, people turn to gold to prevent value loss.
- Global Geopolitical Risks and Uncertainties: Events such as wars, political uncertainties, and economic crises can increase demand for gold. Investors may prefer gold as a safe haven during these periods.
- Demand and Supply Balance: The physical demand for gold (jewelry production, industrial use) and the supply obtained from mining affect prices. Changes in the balance of supply and demand can move prices up or down.
Annual % Change of Gold
Factors Affecting Oil Prices
OPEC and OPEC+ Decisions: OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and OPEC+ (a group formed by the participation of some countries outside of OPEC) determine production quotas. These quotas affect world oil supply and determine prices.
Worldwide Demand and Supply Status: Oil demand is directly proportional to global economic growth. If there is growth in the global economy, oil demand increases and prices rise. During economic recession periods, demand decreases and prices may fall.
Geopolitical Risks: Political tensions in regions where oil production is concentrated (especially the Middle East) can increase prices. A disruption in oil production or a supply crisis can increase prices.
Value of the Dollar: Since oil is generally traded in dollars, the value of the dollar affects oil prices. An increase in the value of the dollar makes oil more expensive; a decrease in the dollar can increase oil prices.
Stocks and Inventory Data: Weekly US stocks are an important indicator of short-term changes in prices. Rising stocks indicate ample supply and prices may fall, while falling stocks may indicate a supply shortage and raise prices.
Weather and Natural Disasters: Natural disasters, especially in regions important for oil production and refining, can affect production and push prices up.
These factors are interconnected, and changing one can affect the other, and as a result, gold and oil prices can fluctuate.
Annual % Change of Crude Oil Prices
Brief information about major economic developments in the last 20 years
The Global Financial Crisis of 2008
Event: Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and collapse of global financial system.
Gold and Oil Price Reaction: Gold prices rose from $700 to over $1,000 in 2008 in search of safe haven. Oil prices have fallen significantly due to global economic uncertainty and falling demand.
2020 COVID-19 Pandemic
Event: Global health crisis and economic uncertainty.
Gold and Oil Price Reaction: Gold reached a historic high of over $2,000 per ounce in August 2020. Oil prices have fallen to historic lows due to a collapse in global demand and excess supply.
2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Event: Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine.
Gold and Oil Price Reaction: With geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices rose above $2,000 in 2022. Geopolitical tensions, supply concerns and sanctions have caused sharp increases in oil prices.
2025 Israel-Iran Conflict
Event: Israeli airstrikes on Iran and regional tensions. Gold and Oil Price Reaction: Due to regional uncertainties, gold prices reached a record high of over $3,000 per ounce in June 2025. Regional conflicts, especially the risk of a possible blockage in the Strait of Hormuz, have led to fluctuations in oil prices
Are conflicts the biggest factor in the rise of prices?
Impact on gold prices
At the beginning of 2025, with Trump returning to presidency, investors increased their focus on gold with the idea that the Russia-Ukraine conflicts would end. On the other hand, the trade war and tax practices implemented by the Trump administration turned the markets upside down. Gold fell after reaching record levels. The general reason for this decline was the gradual decline of investors’ hopes that the Russia-Ukraine crisis would end. The India-Pakistan conflict that broke out later and the subsequent Israel-Iran war triggered a new increase in prices.
XAU/USD,4H Chart
On 4H, the price started to rise again from the Fibonacci level of 38.2%. The MACD supports these increases. The ongoing conflicts may continue to rise with investors seeking a safe haven. If the price continues to rise, the target will be the all-time high of 3500.
Daily
In the daily time series, the price may gain strong upward momentum. The biggest reason for the rise is seen as ongoing conflicts. In this case, it will be inevitable to see new maximum levels. The target is $3650.
Impact on oil prices
As Israel and Iran exchange deadly salvoes, there are growing concerns that the conflict will spread across one of the world’s key oil- and gas-producing regions. Equity markets initially were roiled after Israel’s surprise attack on Friday but have since stabilised. When we’re talking about the Middle East, that really means one thing: oil. There are two ways that the Iran war might affect oil prices. First, Israel’s strikes on Iran may reduce Iran’s own oil exports. Iran is responsible for about 3 4% of world oil production, though only around a third of that gets exported.
After Washington’s use of military force against Iran, Tehran responded with threats to strike US bases in the Middle East or block the Strait of Hormuz. A strategic global shipping route handling 20% of the world’s energy supplies, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passageway between Oman and Iran.
Analysts, who emphasize the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, comment that if such a closure occurs, the price of a barrel of oil could rise above $130.
XBR/USD, Daily
After the Israel-Iran conflict, the price of a barrel of oil rose to $77.50. This level is a strong resistance for . The price has fallen again from the resistance level. The price continues to rise based on fundamental news, which is seen as a sign of the conflict continuing.
Conclusion
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint in global oil supply, with about 20% of the world’s energy passing through it. The geopolitical tensions between Iran, Israel, and the wider Middle East have the potential to disrupt this vital shipping route, which would have a dramatic effect on global oil prices. Analysts have warned that if the Strait is closed, oil prices could soar above $130 per barrel, exacerbating an already volatile global market.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, combined with the potential for Iran to reduce its oil exports due to strikes on its oil infrastructure, has already caused significant uncertainty. With Iran being responsible for 3-4% of global oil production, a reduction in its supply could send shockwaves through the market, especially given the current tightness in oil supply.
Furthermore, the economic environment in 2025, marked by the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, has added complexity to market dynamics. As markets adjusted to the trade war and tax policies of the Trump administration, investor sentiment shifted, leading to volatility in both the oil and gold markets. The geopolitical tensions have resulted in increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold, although the ongoing crises—including the India-Pakistan conflict and the Israel-Iran war—have triggered further increases in oil prices.
Overall, the combination of these geopolitical developments underscores the critical link between political instability and the volatility of energy prices. It highlights how global events, particularly in key regions like the Middle East, can have far-reaching effects on both oil prices and broader market sentiment.