Gold Continues to Decline
Gold () slipped towards around $3,272 on Friday, hovering near its lowest level in a month, as easing geopolitical tensions and positive trade developments reduced demand for safe-haven assets. A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran has held, reducing fears of a wider Middle East conflict and prompting investors to move back into riskier assets.
Market sentiment was further lifted by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a signed trade agreement with China, alongside indications that a major deal with India could follow. Additionally, reports that the US is close to finalising agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while continuing talks with Japan and other nations, have bolstered optimism about global trade stability, weighing on gold.
Investors are now focusing on key US labour market data this week: , the , and . These indicators will be closely analysed for signals on the health of the US economy and the potential direction of the (Fed) rate policy. This could influence gold’s near-term trajectory if data surprises the market.
XAU/USD rebounded during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, European Central Bank (ECB) President will give a speech at 5:00 p.m. UTC. Investors will watch Lagarde’s comments for any subtle shifts in tone regarding the interest rate trajectory and the broader policy framework. If Lagarde adopts a more cautious or dovish stance than markets currently anticipate, it could weigh on the XAU/USD by reinforcing expectations of a prolonged accommodative stance.
Euro Consolidates Ahead of ECB President’s Speech
On Monday, the euro () gained 0.15%, reaching 1.17500 and briefly touching 1.17540—its highest level since September 2021. The euro was on track for a 1.57% weekly gain—the strongest performance since 19 May.
The rally reflects broad (USD) weakness as markets adjust expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path amid signs of slowing US economic momentum and resilient European data. US consumer spending unexpectedly fell in May, with reduced demand for big-ticket items such as motor vehicles as pre-tariff stockpiling eased. Meanwhile, inflation remained subdued, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may ease policy further to support economic growth.
“Taken together, both messages highlight how erratic Trump is and that any assumptions built into markets can be instantly undermined”, said Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at ForexLive. “The knee-jerk has been to buy the US dollar but once the smoke clears, that’s likely to retrace. The trade war has been a dollar drag all year”, Button added.
EUR/USD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, market participants will closely watch speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) officials for fresh signals on the policy outlook. Most important is ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech at 5:00 p.m. UTC, which could offer insights into the central bank’s monetary policy stance. Key levels for EUR/USD traders to watch are support at 1.16800 and resistance at 1.17539.
Japanese Yen Declines as Japanese Yen Strengthens
The Japanese yen () strengthened towards 144.000 on Monday, approaching a two-week high. JPY rose as the US dollar (USD) weakened amid a shift towards a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, growing fiscal concerns, and persistent trade uncertainties.
The softer US dollar environment supported JPY, which remains sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment and US monetary policy expectations. Investors are now closely watching this week’s key US labour market data, including the nonfarm payrolls report, for signs of potential labour market weakness that could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut as early as July. Signs of a cooling labour market could pressure the US dollar, further underpinning the Japanese yen’s strength in the near term.
Domestically, Japan’s industrial production rose less than expected in May, reflecting ongoing challenges from elevated US tariffs. Particularly, the unresolved 25% tariff on Japanese car imports continues to hinder progress in trade negotiations with Washington. Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday for deeper insights into corporate sentiment and the broader economic outlook. The data could shape expectations around domestic policy support and JPY trajectory in the coming weeks.
USD/JPY continue falling during Asian and early European trading sessions. The decline began after the release of weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data. The volume of industrial production in Japan in May 2025 decreased by 1.8% compared to the same month of the previous year. Traders should watch the key 143.750 level, as a break below it could trigger a significant downward move.