Diesel and gas are the leaders in the fall-out in Israel attack on Iran. The cutoff of Israel’s exports for a period and the tightness of supply of diesel in Europe led to panic buying and a blowout increase in the ultra-low sulfur oil crack spread. It looks like this is what’s going to lead to a major new wave higher in the oil market but that was thwarted when late in the trading session White House Press Secretary is Karoline Leavitt came out and said that President Trump would make his decision on Iran within the next two weeks.
That statement caused a big drop in as it took away, in some traders’ minds, the possibility that President Trump would attack Iran oil facilities over the weekend. Of course if you analyze what Karoline Leavitt said, “within two weeks” which means it could be within two hours or 2 minutes or within two weeks or anywhere in between. President Trump informed senior aides that he approved attack plans for Iran but was waiting to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program, according to sources as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
In fact, President Trump also suggested that when it came to Iran, no option was off the table. What that means is that the bunker busting bombs could be used to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities at any time. According to Brett Baier on Fox News this technology has never been used before for this purpose, yet the US military feels very confident that this is going to be a successful mission should President Trump choose to carry it out.
The New York Post reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly implied that his country is capable of attacking all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, even the secretive Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is believed to be buried half a mile under a mountain.
Netanyahu insisted the Jewish state “will achieve all our objectives” despite many military experts doubting that the Jewish state has the capabilities of taking out the underground nuclear facility site. “We will achieve all our objectives and hit all of their nuclear facilities. We have the capability to do that,” Netanyahu said when asked by a reporter about Fordow specifically.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, European foreign ministers are scheduled to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva on Friday to urge them to de-escalate tensions and propose a reduction of Tehran’s nuclear activities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his U.K. counterpart on Thursday to discuss the conflict stating that, “Iran can never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon,” as noted by the State Department. As the conflict progresses into its second week, Israel and Iran continue to exchange fire. Israel reported that it targeted missile-manufacturing sites in Iran overnight.
Oil, gas, and diesel prices are fluctuating dramatically due to headlines today, but this is a pivotal moment for the petroleum market trend. Option premiums have surged, making it an opportune time to consider strategies involving long futures combined with short options or other approaches to collect more premium if conditions stabilize.
It’s Hot Hot Hot! Natural gas prices are rising as hot weather hits, and the EIA reported lower-than-expected injections into supply. Working gas in storage was 2,802 Bcf as of June 13, 2025, which is 95 Bcf higher than the previous week but still within historical ranges. Fox Weather warns of extreme heat affecting millions across the northern U.S., with temperatures expected to reach triple digits in major cities from Chicago to the East Coast. Download the Fox Weather app to stay updated on the heatwave and its impact on natural gas prices.
Israel has restarted limited natural gas exports from surplus supplies after meeting domestic needs, nearly a week after halting production due to an air battle with Iran, the Energy Ministry announced. That may take some pressure off of the squeeze and diesel prices but it won’t solve the problem.