The (DXY) has broken its technical support level and is now trading below 97.5. This week’s US data is expected to be weak, which could push down further, while and benefit. Traders should watch market momentum before entering trades.
Fundamental Analysis
What is NFP?
- NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) measures the number of new jobs created in the US, excluding farm workers, military personnel, small non-profit employees, and family businesses.
- It is usually released together with the and average hourly earnings.
- NFP measures the US labor market. The Fed uses this data to decide interest rates – interest rates directly affect USD value and indirectly impact gold, oil, and forex pairs.
Forecast for this week’s NFP (released July 3)
- : ~110 – 120K (lower than last month’s 139K)
- Unemployment rate: slightly up to 4.3%
- Wages: Average hourly earnings are up 0.3% m/m, slower than last month’s 0.4%- lower wage inflation pressure – Fed is less likely to keep high rates for long.
Main Scenario
If data is worse than these forecasts, it shows the US economy is slowing down. The Fed may sooner. When rates are low, USD tends to weaken (investors shift money to other currencies or higher-yielding assets).
Technical Analysis
US Dollar
Currently, the Dollar Index has broken support at 97.5 – 98 and may continue its downtrend. Based on the above scenario, USD could drop further to 95 support level.
When USD drops: , usually rise, tends to fall.
Figure 1: DXY Daily Chart – June 30, 2025
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold is now supported at the Fibonacci 0.618 level around $3249. If USD weakens, gold could rise back to 3450. However, RSI shows weak bullish momentum.
Traders should be cautious, gold may fail to hold the 0.618 level and drop further before reversing up. Always wait for momentum confirmation.
Figure 2. XAUUSD Daily Chart – June 30, 2025
Oil (USOIL)
Oil is moving sideways around 64 support in a tight range. There is no major news yet from OPEC (regarding oil production) or geopolitical headlines to trigger a breakout.
If NFP is weak – USD weakens – Oil may hold 64 support and recover slightly. Priority is to look for short-term buying opportunities.
Because oil is very sensitive to political news, traders should also monitor OPEC updates and Middle East tensions.
Figure 3. WTI Oil Daily Chart – June 30, 2025
Notes
Even if NFP data is weak, price might not move strongly because:
- The market may have already priced it in.
- (measuring US service sector health, released July 3) could guide market direction.
- Gold and oil are at support but lack strong momentum – wait for clear signals before trading.
Strategy: Always wait for technical confirmation before entering trades. Avoid FOMO when news is released.